Phoenix International Speedway - Subway Fit Fresh 600 (News & Notes)

[HacheMan]

Subway Fit Fresh 600(k)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Phoenix International Raceway for the seventh race of the 2010 season, the Subway Fit Fresh 600(k). Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Saturday.


When: Saturday, April 10, 2010; 7:46 p.m./et.


Weather: Sunny with a high around 88; wind out of the SSE at 12 mph. There is zero percent change of precipitation on Saturday.


The Track: Phoenix International Raceway

PIR is a relatively flat (11 and nine degree banking in the corners) one mile oval. Hendrick Motorsports driver's Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have won the last six races at PIR. Kevin Harvick dominated both races in 2006 and the Busch Brothers won both races at the track in 2005. All five are options this weekend.


Key to Race: Which Hendrick Driver will win?

Hendrick Motorsports has dominated PIR the past few years. We anticipate all drivers from its stable will be fast. Roush-Fenway will also bring some quality cars to the race to challenge Hendrick's dominance at Phoenix.


Qualifying Procedures:

47 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the 2010 owners points will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 are determined during qualifying on Friday, April 9 at 7:10 pm/et.


Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

Top 5

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has 11 top 10 finishes in 14 career starts at PIR. He won four of the past five races at the track and is the obvious pick to win this weekend.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has finished in the top 20 in his last 25 starts at PIR. He won the spring race last year and will be very fast again this weekend.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has had a very fast sled at PIR lately. He will be in the mix to win.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon won the April 2007 race and has 17 top 10 finishes in 22 career starts at PIR. We look for him to be very strong again this weekend.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has finished in the top 11 in eight of the past 10 Phoenix races. He is a great pick this weekend.


6 to 10

No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has been awesome at PIR during his career. He has two wins and 18 straight top 15 finishes. He is a great choice for a strong finish.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has been very successful at PIR during his career. We like him to make the top 10 and with some luck could crack the top five.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has led 349 laps in the past 10 races at PIR. He should have the No. 16 ride inside the top 10 this weekend.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Smoke has finished inside the top 15 in seven of the past nine races at PIR. He should have a good ride once again.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has led 316 laps in the past eight races at PIR including wins in both the 2006 races. He is good bet to crack the top 10.


11 to 20

No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano has finished inside the top 10 in three of the six races this season. We like his chances to do it again on Saturday.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has cracked the top 20 in four of the past five races at PIR. He should finish near the top 10 this weekend.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy qualified excellent, but struggled in race trim at PIR last year. He should finish just outside the top 10.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. has finished in the top 22 in seven of his eight career start at PIR. Another strong finish is expected.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished 35th and 31st last year at PIR. He will improve on those finishes this trip to the desert, but he isn't worth taking a chance on.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has three top five finishes in 16 career starts at PIR, but he also has six 34th place or worse finishes. Use him at your own risk.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has finished in the top five in three of the last eight races
at PIR, but he has struggled in the other five races. His inconsistency makes him a tough pick this weekend.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer hasn't had a ton of success at PIR during his career. He isn't a terrific choice.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Rudy cracked the top 10 in both races at PIR last season. He is a nice sleeper option this week.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose has cracked the top 20 in all three of his career starts at PIR. He is a sleeper option.


21 to 30

No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has cracked top 30 in all six of his career starts at PIR. With the strong start he is off to this season we like him as a decent budget pick.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has finished inside the top 15 the past two races this season, but he wasn't great at PIR last season. He should finish just outside the top 20 this weekend.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. ran great races at PIR last year. He should be decent again this weekend.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: PIR has been one of Jamie Mac's worst tracks. This isn't the weekend to take a chance on him.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has averaged just a 23rd place finish the past six races at PIR. He is a risky pick.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers usually qualifies strong at PIR, but he hasn't been nearly as fast in race-trim. He will need a little luck to crack the top 20.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish during his career at PIR. He isn't much of an option.
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has never cracked the top 10 at PIR. He won't be a factor this weekend.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler won't help your team, but he won't destroy it. There are far better and worse fantasy options.
No. 34 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil usually qualifies awful, but he always somehow manages to get his car inside the top 30 when the checkers fly. He should be able to accomplish his magic again on Saturday.


31 to 35

No. 37 David Gilliland: Since missing the Daytona 500, Gilliland has knocked off five straight top 30 finishes. He is someone to keep an eye on for those of you in the deepest of NASCAR fantasy leagues.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed was off to a terrific start to the season, but has limped home the past two races. Lack of consistency will happen when you are still learning how to drive a stock car.
No. 78 Regan Smith: Regan, like Scott Speed, has struggled the past two races. He should remain in the top 35 in owner points, but he will need to drive a little more conservatively.
No. 71 Bobby Labonte: Labonte has five top 10 finishes in the past 11 races at Phoenix, but that was racing for better funded teams. He won't have enough horses this weekend to be much of sleeper pick.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon isn't an option this weekend.


Field Fillers

No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 38 Kevin Conway
No. 90 Scott Riggs
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 26 David Stremme
No. 46 Terry Cook
No. 35 Johnny Sauter
No. 36 Mike Bliss
No. 02 Brandon Ash


Brownie's Picks

Top Four:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Mark Martin
3. Kurt Busch
4. Jeff Gordon

Sleepers:

1. Jeff Burton
2. Martin Truex Jr.

Bust of the Week:

Kasey Kahne

 

[HacheMan]

Subway Fresh Fit 600(k)
Track history: In 1964, the Phoenix International Raceway was built in the foothills of the Estrella Mountains to accommodate open-wheel racing. The 1-mile oval track has 11-degree banking in Turns 1 and 2 and 9-degree banking in Turns 3 and 4. The 1,179-foot frontstretch and 1,551-foot backstretch have very little banking (less than 9 degrees). In 1988, NASCAR began racing at the Arizona track, hosting the annual fall 312 lap Checker Auto Parts 500.

The track is similar to a short track in that the corners are flat, long and sweeping. The cars spend a lot of time in the corners which makes the setups extremely important. The preferred line is at the bottom of the track at the start, but a higher second groove develops during the race.

PIR spent $5 million to install 1,044 Musco lighting fixtures and ran its first night-time Cup event and first spring race as well in April 2005.

The race this weekend will be the longest Sprint Cup event ever held at PIR. All previous races held at the track were 500k (312 lap) events. Since NASCAR moved to standard race times for 2010, PIR added 63 laps (100k) to maintain its spot as the first official night race of the Sprint Cup season. Saturday's 600k race starts at 4:30 p.m. local time, and with the added laps, will run into the evening.

First Phoenix Cup race: Geoffrey Bodine put the No. 5 Levi Garrett Chevrolet on the pole for the November 6th, 1988 Checker 500, led 2 laps and finished 6th. Ricky Rudd looked to be the winner, leading the most laps (183) but the engine went south in the No. 26 Quaker State Buick dropping him to 26th place. Alan Kulwicki started the No. 7 Zerex Ford 21st in the lineup, led 41 laps including the last, to take the inaugural PIR Cup victory.

2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500(k): Not much to say about the April 18, 2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500. Mark Martin scored the pole with his No. 5 Carquest/Kellogg's Chevrolet, led 157 of the 312 laps and won the race. This was Martin's third of seven poles and first of five victories in 2009.


Last Phoenix Cup race: There's even less to say about the November 15, 2009 Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. Martin Truex Jr. scored the pole in the No. 1 Rain-X Chevrolet but never led a lap (was passed by Kurt Busch on Lap 1). Truex finished 5th and Busch finished 6th. Jimmie Johnson showed the way by starting the No. 48 Chevrolet in 3rd, led 238 of the 312 laps and picked up his 7th win of the season. Johnson just had to show up the following week at Homestead to clinch his 4th series title.

Your fantasy game won't allow you to pick all track favorites so Mid-Pack Attack is here to help. A mid-packer may not win the race but has as good a shot at a top 15 finish as track favorites Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin. There were 47 cars on the preliminary entry list for this weekend's Cup race. Here are our picks for Saturday night's Subway Fresh Fit 600(k) in Avondale, Arizona.

Mid-Pack picks

Most fantasy experts expect the Chevy (make that Hendrick) and Ford (Roush and Richard Petty) teams to be the ones to watch this weekend. This may be true but we're picking all Toyota Camry's this week to round out your rosters.

In the last two Phoenix Cup races, Martin Truex Jr. scored the 5th most championship points of all drivers entered in this weekend's race. Over the last five Phoenix races, he had finishes of 7th, 8th, 43rd, 7th and 5th (the last from the pole). The 43rd place was the result of a plastic bag stuck in the grill that cooked the engine after only 27 laps. Truex is coming off a 12th at Martinsville and 5th at Bristol. We think his chances are good for another top 15 or better on Saturday evening.

We like Truex's Michael Waltrip Racing teammate David Reutimann's numbers at Phoenix as well. He started out in the truck series where he scored two top 10's in three PIR races. Reutimann averaged a 16.4 finish in five Nationwide Series races at this track including an 18th last fall. In 2009, he crossed the finish line 8th and 10th in the Sprint Cup Series events. Reutimann started this season with three top 15's in a row but followed them up with two DNF's and a 28th. We think he'll turn it around this weekend and is a decent choice for a fourth or fifth driver on your fantasy team.

While we're looking at MWR drivers this week, let's go to the JTG Daugherty No. 47 team that has a Sprint Cup corporate alliance with MWR. Marcos Ambrose has finished in the top 15 in three of the last four races this season. His worst finish in three Cup starts at Phoenix was an 18th place. Last season, he earned the 10th most championship points for the two PIR races. He spent a good amount of time running in the top five in this race last year. In the salary-cap style fantasy games, Ambrose is probably still a reasonable buy this early in the season. If your game has a pick limit on drivers for the season, this might be a good time to use one on the man from down under.

For our final Toyota pick we're going with Kyle Busch. A 'favorite' you say? Not at Phoenix. He has a NASCAR statistics Driver Rating of 10th and he's outside the top 15 in points (we know, barely, but he's fair game for us this week). He IS top ranked in the "Quality Passes" (passing while running in the top 15) category per NASCAR Statistics. Busch made 291 QP's in the last ten Phoenix Cup races. The winner of the 2005 fall race has a worst finish of 17th in the last six races at the "Jewel of the Desert". It's hard to believe Busch has only one top ten so far in 2010 but we feel that may change on Saturday night.